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16th Nov 2006, 09:03 GMT
When I write these columns, my schedule typically goes something like this: Saturday and early Sunday I get the basics down. I try to figure out what angles I'm going to take on the week and write up as much as I can, knowing that I will likely have to tweak a thing or two based on the outcomes of the games. By Monday I should be finishing up the general patter. Come Tuesday the latest DVOA rankings and point spreads are set, so I work out my spread picks. The money line usually isn't solid until Wednesday, so that, along with clean-up and housekeeping (amazon.com links and so forth) get done on Wednesday. With luck, late Wednesday night I submit the column and the editors have it up on Thursday. This year has been different. I swear there hasn't been a week when I haven't had to do significant rewrites come Monday. It's been that kind of season. Nothing is going as expected from week to week. From a gamblers point of view, Bill Simmons described it well last week: We're nine weeks into the NFL season and the underdogs are 15 games better than .500. Just in the past four weeks, 27 of 33 underdogs covered AND won outright. It's a financial catastrophe. It's a gambling quagmire. I have friends calling me just to say, "Yo, I closed up shop -- going cold turkey until the playoffs." I have readers e-mailing me just to tell me, "I've lost 14 of 16 teasers this season." I have other readers telling me that they did a George Costanza a few weeks ago (went the opposite of what they would have done) and had big weeks ever since... It's an unpredictable, chaotic, inexplicable season...Belichick and Brady are no longer reliable at home. Neither are the Steelers, Eagles or Broncos. Bad quarterbacks routinely win on the road. Monday night home teams routinely lose. Terrible coaches can cover against good ones. But even for non-gamblers, this has been the bizzaro season. It has been the year of the upset which means a poor columnist can't safely get a head start and ends up scrambling. In the column below I tried to take a look at the divisional races with an eye to the playoffs. I examined the records of the teams and looked at their schedule going forward and sketched out what I was going to say. Then the Jets beat the Pats, Miami beats KC, the Texans beat the Jags, the Steelers beat the Saints, the Giants fall apart, and I found myself under the gun to rewrite massive swaths of text. Tinkerbell has noticed something wrong too: All the QBs this year are stupid. All the coaches are stupid. The whole NFL has failed to catch my imagination. I have never seen a pro football year such as this and hope to never again. Stupid Plummer is QBing the Broncos, The Dolphins are killing me worse than ever, and the only enjoyment I am getting this year is from T.O. It's just not right. And I can't take it any more. But the season will end, and there will be playoffs and a Super Bowl. So now that we are past the mid-way point and all the byes are gone (heh), let's pause to prognosticate the potential playoff picture (wipe off your monitor if you are reading aloud). AFC East A perfect example of bizzaro season. This paragraph was going to start with "The Pats are in control..." Now, after losing to the Jets on Sunday, the Patriots are a mere one game up on them -- where did that come from? I can't see the Jets taking this division. Just can't picture it. The Jets are no better than average. The Pats are the Pats; it is not their time to drift into mediocrity yet. However, losses by the Jags and Chiefs put the Jets back in the wild card hunt for now. The Bills can hang their hat on beating the Pats, but they aren't going anywhere and Miami, well, excuse me while I ramble on a bit about the Fins. Don't let the upsets of Chicago and KC fool you, this is a team with deep problems. The Dolphins are hosed and not just for this year. They have got pretty close to nothing to show for all the QB machinations of the off season, apart from a lighter purse. There is very little good young talent on the team, Culpepper looks to be one of the biggest signing busts ever and may have to go into career survival mode, begging for roster spots based on memories of 2004. All things considered, things are going to get uglier before they get better. Compared to pre-season expectations I would argue the Fins are the biggest disappointment in the history of the NFL. AFC South The Peytons will take the division and probably have the best record in the NFL, as always, by being the guys who score last. Their defense has dropped form last year, but that offense is so far beyond anything the league has ever seen that it won't matter. They'll win 14 or so in regular season, then get nailed by someone in the playoffs. I'd suggest Peyton change his name to Sisyphus, but Brian Kinchen might call it "kinda gay." Then Michael Irvin would mispronounce it 'sissified' and Tom Jackson would call him retarded. Bob Costas would do an in-depth segment entitled "Greek Mythology, Homophobia, and the NFL," where he interviews Art Shell on the topic of stoicism. And no, I have no idea where I was going with this either. The Jags are looking at a 9 or 10 win season, including a potential fight for a wild card with the Chiefs, who they play in Week 17 on Christmas Eve. Write-offs: Houston, Tennessee. AFC North The Ravens are sort of the anti-Colts. It's all about the D. Although I expect the O to improve a bit over the remainder of the year, it hasn't come close to panning out the way it was supposed to under Steve McNair and with Jamal Lewis having paid his debt to society. You know, I'm pretty sure that if a race of invading aliens challenged Earthlings to a single football game for control of the planet, a combination of the Colts offense and the Ravens defense could save the world. The Bengals are the most entertaining team in the league right now, even more than Dallas. Teetering on the brink of anarchy, they are facing an absolutely brutal schedule from here on out; they'll struggle to get to 8-8. There is no form of insanity that would surprise me at this point. Here's what Don Banks at SI.com wrote about the Steelers: If 1992 was Queen Elizabeth's "annus horribilis" -- Latin for "horrible year" -- then 2006 is Roethlisberger's version of a walk on the miserable side of life. Wow -- just wow. What a minefield. How much you want to bet that "Latin for 'horrible year' " was added by the editor so they wouldn't have to set up a company wide email filter for "horrible anus." I would write about the Browns but I keep nodding off. AFC West This will be a terrific race to follow. The Broncos and Chargers are likely to battle it to the bitter end. Of the two, the Chargers seem to be the stronger team but the division will likely be determined by the result of their head-to-heads. My money is on the Chargers because their ferocious pass rush might give Jake Plummer the vapors. After their loss to the Fins, KC is effectively out of the hunt for the division crown now and needs to target the Jags for the wild card. You can only make so many jokes about the Raiders and I'm pretty sure I've already exceeded my allotment. So I'll be sincere: the Raiders have hope. The D is tight and young (I think I just triggered smut filters all over the web) and can be built upon. If they put together a real O-line instead of one made Weebles, and if they got a coach with movable arms and legs they would have a decent team. Meanwhile over in the NFC, there is Chicago at 8-1 with seven teams at 6-3 or 5-4. This could get crazy. NFC East The Giants currently have a single game lead over the Eagles and Cowboys. But they also have Eli, so that's a wash. They are more banged up that Tara Reid and they have a hellacious schedule the rest of the way. I would generously guess they go 4-3 for a ten win season. If there is a team that better than it's record it is the Eagles. According to the DVOA stat that I use in my picks, the Eagles are the best team in the NFL, just edging out the Bears. Frankly, I think the trouncing of the Redskins was just a taste of what's to come. 5-2 the rest of the way gives them 10 wins despite the fact that they deserve about 12. The Cowboys seem pretty happy with Romo. With Terry Glenn out, they confidently slapped down the Cardinals as a good team should. There is still the risk of a T.O./Tuna battle royale, but I am sad to say that possibility diminishes a little with each win. Home games against the Bucs and the Lions give them a couple of freebies, which they will need. My guess, 10 wins and a struggle to score. That's right, I just called three 10-win teams in the NFC East which means seeding will likely be determined in head-to-heads. Dallas has a poor division record. The pivotal point will likely be the Eagles at Giants on 12/17, where the Eagles need to avenge their previous loss. In another division, the Deadskins might be a hard eight away from a wild card. But as the worst team in a great division, they get to face a top contender almost every week. Even a phenomenal run will likely only get them to .500. Actual quote from Joe Gibbs: "Certainly I'd like to play in another division. I'm not sure which one that would be, but I certainly don't want to be in this one." NFC South The When-Can-We-Stop-Pretending-We're-Glad-We're-Not-In-Vegas Saints should be OK through the end of the season. They can lose their two games against NFC East opponents and split their intra-division games and still end up with 10 wins. The Falcons will be meeting the Saints on 11/26. If they take that one and take their two creampuff opponents they will have to win 2 of 4 against the Ravens, Cowboys, Panthers, and Eagles to manage the 10 wins that will likely be needed to take the division. Considering Mike Vick has used up his allotment of good passing games for the year, I gotta figure 9-7 and a possible wild card. The Panthers, like the Falcons, could stand to beat the Saints to leverage their chance at the division. They really need to beat the Rams and the Redskins in the next two weeks because the schedule the rest of the way out is brutal. If they win those two and manage to steal 2 of 3 versus the Eagles, Giants and Steelers, they'll be in the driver's seat for their final two against Atlanta and New Orleans. That's best case scenario. More likely, they come out 9-7 and have to cross fingers to get a wild card. The Fins are certainly the most disappointing teams this year, but the Bucs rival them for surprising suckitude. Wisely, Coach Chucky has written off the year as a rebuilding season and a learning experience for Gradkowski, instead of trying to force an extra win or two out of it. NFC North Da Bears are like a Perfect 10 you get set up with. You start out in awe, but then you notice a little zit on her left cheek (first half of the Arizona game) and she gets and occasional call from her ex-boyfriend (the Miami loss), but she is still far hotter than you deserve so you decide it's really nothing, you're just being paranoid. But it's sitting there in the back of your mind. The Bears have a pretty easy schedule once they get past road games against the pumped up Jets and the Pats next week and the week after. After that the only potential problem is the Rams. If anything, complacency might be a big problem for the Bears. The only thing that can stop them is themselves. (I'm tentatively scheduling a road trip to Chi-town for Super Bowl Sunday, just in case.) The Vikings were the only other team with a prayer in this division and they have pretty much pissed it away. The Pack has probably over achieved a bit such that 4-5 is as positive for them as it is negative for the Vikes. No playoffs here. I understand the Detroit City Council is putting together a bid for an NFL team. NFC West Seattle apparently didn't get them memo about the required Super Bowl loser meltdown. The O-line has had to tough it out without Steve Hutchison, and they've had to fight through the Hasselbeck and Alexander injuries, but the division is weak and they probably buried their only competition by beating the Rams for the second time last week. Cake schedule in a cake division gives them an outside shot at 11 wins and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs. Suddenly we find the Rams and the 49ers with the same record. The Rams are on a four game losing streak and the Niners have won their last two. And the Niners have beaten the Rams. I make these points out of academic interest because neither of these teams is going to see the playoffs. The Cardinals are what we thought ... ah, forget it. The Dennis Green death watch is on. Somebody get Edge James a Prozac reload. Results Enter: me, gleefully whistling Back in the Saddle. I had a good feeling about this week and 5-2 versus the spread tells you why. That puts me at 8-9 for the year or about $190 in the hole. Still, I'm trending up. Once again, the money line picks generate a profit. Although only 3-3, the clever assessment of the risk/reward means a profit of $286.96 (thank you Browns and Packers) for the week. For the season that's 11-8, for a profit of $779.11. Yowsah! Other notes Pittsburgh once again manages to hose me. The sad thing is, it doesn't matter if I pick them or against them; it doesn't matter if I do the opposite of what I would normally do; it doesn't matter if I wait 'til the last second to change my mind. The causal link is woven into the fabric of the universe. Physicists call this "action at a distance." I call it just plain mean. Chargers/Bengals -- A truly significant game for Phillip Rivers, but it may be offset by the defensive negatives. That's based on what I have read. I didn't get to see it. Here in Ann Arbor we got to see the 49ers beating the Lions because the NFL believes that people like to watch their local teams participate in pointless inanity more than they like to watch football. Both the Colts and the Ravens won squeakers against El Lame-o teams. It is interesting to note -- and something I will write about more extensively in a future column -- that great teams are not characterized by their ability to win close games. A common trait of great teams is that they utterly destroy weaker opponents. Can you be truly great is only half your team excels? Did you see the Cardinals were so embarrassed by their performance that they turned completely red? (They wore monochrome red uniforms. Get it? That's a joke, son.) Somebody please notify me of the first instance of anyone writing "Joey Harrington just wins." I am going to apply for that person's job. Monday Night capsule review The evening's guest was Jeff Gordon of NASCAR. The Stooges presented him with a Belgian waffle iron as a gift. Gordon was delighted. He went on to explain how, in Belgium, waffles are not eaten for breakfast but as fruity desserts. Then they had a pillow fight and braided each other's hair. (Only one of those sentences is false.) In the second half we were treated to pictures of Steve Smith ralphing his guts out on the sidelines, which prompted Tony Kornhorny to dwell on vomiting technique. MNF is officially a complete train wreck. On to this week's picks. Click on the section headings for the relevant spreadsheets. ==Point Spread Picks== Games with the wrong favorite Jacksonville, at home, is giving 3.5 to the Giants. But the home field advantage wipes out the mismatch, plus with so many injuries on the Giants it's too hard to make a clear call. Pass. The Chargers are giving 3 to Denver, in Denver. After the home field adjustment, the overall Denver numbers are better. Potential chilly night in Mile-High. My jaw is clenched because I'm high on the Chargers, but I gotta take the points here and hope the new Jake Plummer comes through. Pick: Broncos +3 Is it really possible for the numbers to be in Green Bay's favor over New England after the home field adjustment? What is going on here? Could New England really be crumbling after I said it is not the year for them to crumble just a few paragraphs up? I'm going to take the points on this one for one reason: The Pats signed Vinny Testaverde which is either an act of fear or confusion. (Could Brady have an injury they are keeping hush-hush?). Plus, Brett Favre is rejuvenated, which is a shorthand way of saying the Pack managed to stumble into some good offensive linemen. Pick: Packers +6.5 Indiana is giving Dallas a point and a half, in Dallas. Amazing isn't it how teams that can be so well matched can have such disparate records. You know, most gamblers have set rules like "Always bet a home dog in October" or "Never bet a game with a point spread less than 2." If I had a set rule it would be "Never bet against Peyton Manning on if he's giving less than a touchdown." But I don't have set rules like that. I treat everything situationally. Frankly, I think there is a part of every Colt player is hoping to get the drama of a potential undefeated season over. But more importantly DVOA says these teams are evenly matched, but the home field advantage tips the scales for the 'Boys. The '72 Dolphins pop the corks this week. Pick: Cowboys +1.5 Games where the spread is too high The Panthers giving 7 at home to the Rams. Both these teams have some astounding talents, and both have some severe problems. If anything I think the Panthers have a slight edge as they are at home and up-trending for the season; the Rams are the opposite. Still, when it's this close a call and you get can get spotted a touchdown, you gotta take it. How much would Tory Holt be fined for doing a heave your guts out touchdown dance to taunt Steve Smith? Pick: Rams +7 San Fran is getting 6.5 at home from Seattle. The fact is, although they are flirting with .500, the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league. Meanwhile the Seahawks, even without Hasselbeck and Alexander, are starting to return to form (could be a scary team in the upcoming weeks). Pass. Games where the spread is too small The only one that really jumps out is Baltimore at home giving 4 to Atlanta. A little scary because the Ravens gave up way too many point to the Titans last week. But the league has figured out the Falcons offense and McNair is on an up-trend so there's no reason the Ravens should win handily. Pick: Ravens -4 ==Money Line Picks== This week there are a whopping 12 money line picks, 11 of which are underdogs (They are listed in the recap.) Aye carumba! This is either going to be a great victory or the week that neutralizes all the money line profit so far. Normally a situation like that would make me stop and rethink things, but considering how the money line has worked out this year, it is not to be questioned. For now. Pick Recap: Point Spread Broncos +3 Packers +6.5 Cowboys +1.5 Rams +7 Ravens -4 Money Line Dallas, $105 Cincinnati, $155 Cleveland, $165 Baltimore, $50 St. Louis, $250 Green Bay, $215 Washington, $155 Minnesota, $170 Detroit, $115 San Francisco, $250 San Diego, $125 New York Giants, $165 And the wheel spins on another week. This is a scary week pick-wise. Who ever thought I would be picking against Brady and Manning and for T.O. and Favre. But a bizzaro season merits bizzaro picks. Note 1: Next week's column may be short, late or both due to the holidays and the Thursday games. Note 2: Go Blue! David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.
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